Summary

The current forecast date is 30 May, showing data until 02 June.

The forecasting model is an unweighted ensemble of three individual models:

  1. unweighted time series ensemble model (autoregressive ARIMA, ETS and naive models)
  2. regression + 7-day-lagged cases (cases mapped from UTLA to Trust using Trust-UTLA mapping in covid19.nhs.data)
  3. convolution from cases to admissions (scaled; cases mapped to Trusts as above)

All models are trained on the last 6 weeks of data (from 18 April) and forecasts are made for the following 14 days.

Note: The following Trusts/UTLAs have been temporarily excluded from this report due issues with the underlying case forecasts in one or more associated UTLAs: Wirral University Teaching Hospital NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Wirral), Mid Cheshire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (UTLAs: Cheshire East, Cheshire West and Chester), Frimley Health NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Bracknell Forest), Royal Berkshire NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Bracknell Forest), East Cheshire NHS Trust (UTLA: Cheshire East), Countess Of Chester Hospital NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Cheshire West and Chester), Stockport NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Stockport).

Current forecast

By recent observed admissions

By forecast admissions

Probability of increase (scatter)

Probability of increase (map)

Past forecasts

Areas of interest

Below is more detailed information about potential Trusts of interest, defined as Trusts where more than 20% of patients are admitted from one of the following UTLAs: Bolton, Blackburn with Darwen, Bedford.

Case-hospitalisation ratio